Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. On Saturday, June 11, 25,000 fans, ages 16 and older, will take home one of their replica . A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. His velocity has dropped again, though Wainwright did push it up a little in his second start. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. Adam WainWright's MLB stats are Win-loss record 195-115, Earned run average 3.35 and Strikeouts 2,142. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. Hes made two starts this spring, covering five total innings. Ad Choices Hell get some work in between now and then, and hopefully that will get him on track. Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. He is known for being a Baseball Player. Guerrero had an RBI single during the first inning in his lone at-bat. Its not like hes been injury-prone; Price has led the league in games started three times and innings pitched twice. One Wainwright is a lot closer to establishing than perhaps even he realizes. But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. Sabermetrics lover. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. Since then, hes made the All-Star team every year, led the league in wins on three occasions, and won a Cy Young award in each league. However, per his stats, it would not be surprising if he is inducted in his first year of eligibility. Be the first one to comment on this story. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. Astros @ Cardinals. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. Its Wainwrights final MLB season before retirement, and (mostly) anything goes. Hernandez also holds the distinction of having been the last MLB pitcher to throw a perfect game (2012). Its only the normal spring-training grind, building up arm strength, minor inflammation, no reason to think hell have to go on the IL, our trainers feel good about it. It goes something like this . Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. But even if we throw 2020 out, Flaherty averaged only 57 innings of work over the last two years. Halladay and Martinez combined to win five Cy Youngs had more dominant peaks than Wainwright, but their status as first-ballot Hall of Famers serve as evidence the electorate is already modifying its standards for Hall-worthy starting pitchers. Unless Adam Wainwright continues to play for a few more seasons and perform at an elite level, the Hall of Fame may elude him, though he will certainly find his name on the voting ballot when eligible. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. As if on schedule, we have our first spring-training round of Is Anything Wrong? with the pitcher. While these numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to convince voters that Adam Wainwright is a Hall of Famer. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. Wainwright, however, has a much more finite timetablehe has announced that he is retiring. With eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, Kershaw is probably a lock for election already, but reaching and surpassing some major career milestones would further elevate him in the pantheon. Sometimes a little spring-training soreness is nothing more than a little spring-training soreness. The Cardinals trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, but St. Louis rallied to win its 12th straight, 8-5. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburghs Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. The veteran right-hander is the last remaining . He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. It was almost a storybook season for the St. Louis Cardinals as club legends Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina were reunited and looked primed for a deep postseason run. 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. After doing some [strength] assessments, its something he can solve. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. . 177-110, 3.51 ERA, 2,272 strikeouts, 122 adjusted ERA. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright may have ended a solid career. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Though hes overcome health scares and worked hard to expand his arsenal to become less reliant upon his cutter, Jansen has continued to take Dodgers fans on a rollercoaster this season. But theres a rhythm to the ritual. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. It's a career that includes 10 All-Star Games, nine Gold Gloves, four Platinum Gloves, two World Series titles and plenty of adulation from the St. Louis area and beyond. And if the Sox do pick up his option, he is by no means a lock to pass Eckersley in saves next year if Hendriks gets most of the chances. But lets see: frequently injured pitcher, already off schedule in spring training, not quite prepared for a full-on pitching test. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. Hes still going strong, as hes tops in the NL in wins (8) in 2017. At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. Look at that. In the five innings Wainwright yielded eight hits and four earned runs for a 7.20 ERA. Molina should make the Baseball Hall of Fame while Wainwright will probably fall short, but even so, we need to enjoy the final season with the longtime battery mates on the . Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are back together, and they will start Opening Day together for the first time since 2009 on Thursday. At least not for starting pitchers. On 30-8-1981 Adam Wainwright (nickname: Adam) was born in Brunswick, Georgia, United States. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). He leads MLB in complete games this season at the age of 40, and is MLB's active leader in complete games with 27. Both legends are heading off into the sunset, their final stop before they end up in Cooperstown in just a few short years. Ive lost track. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. King Felix is still just 31 years old, despite close to 2,500 innings on his right arm. Hes got a long ways to go to reach 200 wins (he has 112), but hes already at 2,031 strikeouts. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina played their final game in the majors, a disappointing 2-0 loss to eliminate them from the Wild Card round. Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. Were not concerned. Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. There is a trio of starting pitchers not yet Hall-eligible who rank somewhere between Gooden and WainwrightFlix Hernndez, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. Its an unfortunate injury that was sustained to of all places his throwing shoulder. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams. Arizona Diamondbacks. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. Don't miss out - sign up for our newsletters! Bumgarner has thrown 36 career innings in the World Series and allowed one earned run. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder. After the divorce, his mother, Nancy, became a real estate agent and raised the boys on her own. We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. At least hes in better shape than 31-year-old Freddie Freeman (41.8/32.1/37.0, +1.5 JAWS), who only recently surpassed last years 3.3 WAR. I found Aroldis Chapman (18.5 WAR | 19.9 WPA | 12.0 WPA/LI | 16.8 R-JAWS, +0.6 R-JAWS). All rights reserved. His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. The hot air balloon . Given the way hes been pitching as of late, thats certainly not farfetched. When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. Theyll defer. 1st stage: All good. Zack Greinke has had an interesting career. All Wins Above Replacement and Wins Above Average data comes . His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. For starters, no pitcher can stay that good for that long. Eleven of the sixty-five are below Wainwright in terms of Hybrid JAWS. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. Wainwright is absolutely not going to make it to Cooperstown, and the numbers say he shouldn't, but you can squint and you can cherry-pick statistics to make an argument for Wainwright if you enter with an agenda. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) was at Cardinal camp earlier this week and asked president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about Flahertys status. Actually, its two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted 2020 has given us many. Your existing password has not been changed. We've sent an email with instructions to create a new password. Josh Donaldson, third base (43.8 career | 41.2 Peak | 42.5 JAWS, +1.5 JAWS). . It happens a lot. Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. The Hall of Stats was built by Adam Darowski, Jeffrey Chupp, and Michael Berkowitz.Follow the Hall of Stats on Twitter or Facebook.The Hall of Stats is open sourced on GitHub.All data is also open and available as a free download. But he didnt become a full-time starter until his age-24 season, and hes now pitched for a quarter of the American League teams. Leg and glute stiffness that limited his leg drive, the aftereffect of recent back spasms, and a torn finger blister. When it comes down to it, Sabathia may find himself in a logjam of other similar pitchers, and if he does get in, it may take him some time. Let's take a look at Flaherty. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. And right now, he simply isnt there. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. David Price is older than he seems; hes already 32 in a few months with just 122 career wins. Likewise, his 42.4 bWAR is lower than the likes of Javier Vazquez, Al Leiter, and Frank Viola. Hall of Very Good. 3rd stage: Well, his arm hasnt rebounded the way we were hoping for, so were just going to shut him down and see how he responds. Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). It may rile up some traditionalists who are married to the idea pitchers must win 300 games and strike out 3,000 batters to be considered Hall-worthy. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. 2000-2023 Rogers Media. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. Rolen, a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, was welcomed to the 'family' of Hall of Famers during an event and press conference Feb. 28, 2023 in Cooperstown, N.Y. I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. Rile people up.. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. Twenty-eight are enshrined in Cooperstown everyone except Wainwright and his fellow active hurlers Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the latter trio of whom are expected to glide in Cooperstown, as well as Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown and Vida Blue. On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? Its a shame because he was off to a great start to his season, with 1.9 WAR and a 195 OPS+ in just 36 games. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. While a Cy Young Award does not guarantee entry, it certainly helps. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) Adam Wainwright was one of many players lucky enough to have shared a clubhouse with Scott Rolen, the newest member of the Baseball Hall of Fame.. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). Poll : Should Adam Wainwright be in the Hall of Fame? He has put together a solid career, posting a 193-114 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.208 WHiP over his 2538.2 innings . . Guerrero is on the Dominican Republic roster for this months World Baseball Classic. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Hes pitched for five teams in two different leagues, which is unusual for a pitcher with such a successful resume. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? I highly doubt it. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. As noted above, for the past few election cycles, Ive turned away from reliever JAWS in favor of a hybrid metric using WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI. But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. Pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 4.45 FIP, hes produced a respectable 2.2 WAR, though hes still 0.6 points below the JAWS standard. All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. Injury? Hes racked up four seasons worth 67 WAR, plus a fifth at 5.7 and a sixth at 4.9; to improve that peak score substantially, he needs big seasons. Via his 10 All-Star selections, nine Gold Gloves, two World Series rings, and reputation for handling pitching staffs, Molinas already been anointed presumptive first-ballot honoree status. {* backButton *} What injury? Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind.